This is an observation of all 26 boards from EBTC 2014 where Mr. Zmudzinski is on lead and Mr. Balicki/Mr. Zmudzinski have not bid. The original work was done some time ago, it has not been updated to include the Poland-Netherlands match.
The observations when Mr. Balicki is on lead are here.
This page was updated on Monday, October 19, 2015. The first original post is now here.
The following is noted:
As an example of the 4 and 5 fingers, look at the first and second photograph below. A double tap of the table with an outstretched hand, or rolling a number prior to extending the fingers (6 cards?) is considered part of a different signal and is ignored.
First the table, then the details, then the summary. The "Kit #" is the number used by Kit Woolsey in the Can you read the B/Z signals? article on Bridgewinners.com. Items in this column marked with a (*) are where Kit disagreed, see B/Z observations. These disagreements are addressed in another page. I have made the table below sortable by either number, just click on the column title. "Z touch" is if Z touches the led card. # fingers is the number of fingers that Mr. Balicki shows along with the suit indicated by the code above. Mr. Balicki's suit is shown next so you can see the correspondence between the suggested length and the cards he has.
|#||Kit #||LIN #||Country||Board #||Contract||Lead time||Z touch||Seconds/fingers||# fingers||Mr. Balicki's Hand||Lead|
|1||25||34209||Turkey||28||4S||1:26:00||Yes||:03, :11||4C, 5H?||96:KJ976:95:QJ94||CA|
|7||2 (*)||34338||Estonia||28||1NT||1:14:55||Yes||:08||5H (1)||A4:Q9654:9653:A4||C9|
|17||13 (*)||34311||Norway||25||1NT||1:07:45||No||:37||5 (2)||K75:T86:954:KJ62||C7|
(1) Mr. Balicki shows count in hearts before Mr. Zmudzinski moves the card.
(2) This is the only false positive.
Mr. Zmudzinski faces the lead, dummy moves the led card, Mr. Zmudzinski moves the led card. This all happens in the first couple of seconds. Within 4-5 seconds, Mr. Balicki extends 4 fingers on his right hand.
Mr. Zmudzinski led a club. Mr. Balicki has 4 clubs. The following are all photographs, not video clips.
After about 8 seconds, Mr. Zmudzinski moves his led card. Mr. Balicki fidgets, checks under the screen to see if Mr. Zmudzinski is looking and after about 8 seconds, extends 4 fingers.
Mr. Zmudzinski led a spade. Mr. Balicki has 4 spades.
After 2-3 seconds, Mr. Zmudzinski moves the led card. About 8 seconds later, Mr. Balicki extends the fingers of his right hand and shows 5 fingers. You have to watch at 0.25 speed to see the difference between 5 fingers (this board) and 4 fingers (previous board).
Mr. Zmudzinski led a heart. Mr. Balicki has 5 hearts.
This is a very busy board. It is the last board in the match against France. Watch as the bidding tray is removed. Mr. Balicki is sitting West. Mr. Balicki grabs the board (he is sitting West, not supposed to touch the board) and shows 4 fingers on the board. Mr. Balicki has 4 hearts. It is the only time that he grabs the board during this match. Mr. Balicki does not know the suit led when he shows 4 fingers on the tray.
Mr. Zmudzinski moves the led card. Mr. Balicki appears to be unsure if he should signal again and starts to show 4 fingers but stops. Mr. Zmudzinski again moves the led card.
Mr. Zmudzinski moves the led card after about 2-3 seconds. You will see that Mr. Zmudzinski leads the card into the middle of the table, sometimes he lets dummy move his card, sometimes, he moves it himself. In this case he moves it himself. About 25-30 seconds later, Mr. Balicki extends the fingers of his right hand to show 5 cards.
Mr. Zmudzinski led a diamond. Mr. Balicki has 5 diamonds.
Mr. Zmudzinski moves the led card about 10 seconds after it is led. This is the match against Monaco. It is unknown if this is before or after comments were made about being still. Mr. Balicki does make some signals with his right hand, including pounding the table with 5 fingers before leading to trick 2, however I have to call this inconclusive because of the time delay.
Mr. Zmudzinski led a heart. Mr. Balicki has 5 hearts. No photograph shown.
About 5 seconds after dummy is shown, Mr. Balicki puts 5 fingers down on the table. Mr. Balicki has 5 hearts. Mr. Zmudzinski then moves the led card 2-3 seconds after Mr. Balicki has shown 5 hearts. Mr. Balicki does not extend any fingers on his right hand, presumably denying 4 or 5 cards in the led suit. If there is a signal for 2 cards, it is currently unknown.
Mr. Zmudzinski led a club. Mr. Balicki has 5 hearts. He has 2 clubs.
Mr. Zmudzinski moves the led card about 2-3 seconds after it is led. Mr. Balicki makes no response. From the auction, declarer has 5 spades, 4 hearts and a weak hand. From dummy, showing distribution will be of little/no benefit to the defense.
Mr. Zmudzinski led a diamond. Mr. Balicki has 4 diamonds.
Mr. Zmudzinski touches the led card briefly after it was led. This is unlike the other times when he moves it.
Mr. Zmudzinski led a club. Mr. Balicki has 2 clubs.
No signals. Mr. Balicki has 2 hearts.
Possibly a 5 card signal. Mr. Balicki has 5 hearts.
About 4-5 seconds after dummy hits, Mr. Balicki shows 4 fingers. Mr. Balicki has 4 hearts.
No finger signals. Mr. Balicki has 1 heart.
No finger signals. Mr. Balicki has 3 hearts.
No finger signals. Mr. Balicki has 3 hearts.
Mr. Balicki rearranges dummy. It is not clear how many fingers he is showing. Mr. Balicki has 4 hearts. Kit believes that this is 4 fingers.
BZ shows 5 fingers after 30 seconds. Does not have a 5 card suit. This is a false positive.
No signal. Mr. Balicki has a 4 card heart suit, but it is weak Jxxx and the contract is 3NT.
Five fingers. Mr. Balicki has a 5 card heart suit, contract is 3NT.
No signals. Mr. Balicki has a weak 6 card heart suit.
Mr. Balicki extends 4 fingers a few seconds after dummy comes down. Mr. Balicki has 4 hearts.
38 seconds after dummy comes down, Mr. Balicki shows 5 fingers. However, watch the video very carefully. In this video, Mr. Balicki rolls his thumb over his hand. He does not do this with the other 5 fingers signals. We believe that this is the signal for 6 card suit. However, this is the only example of a 6 card suit in this set of videos so cannot be conclusive. Mr. Zdumzinski led a diamond. Mr. Balick's shape is 2-2-6-3.
Within 2-3 seconds of dummy coming down, Mr. Balicki shows 5 fingers. He has 5 hearts. Note that the BBO record is wrong, the correct hand record is here.
The sample size for other signals, e.g. showing 2, 3 or 6 cards in led suit is too small.
In all cases (6) where Mr. Zmudzinski 'triggers' (by moving the led card), Mr. Balicki's response, if he gives one, is the number of cards in the led suit. There are no false positives.
The correlation with showing 4 or 5 fingers in the right hand and having 4 or 5 hearts, or 4 or 5 cards in the suit that Mr. Zmudzinski 'triggered' is very strong. In total, there are 11-12 positives out of a total of 26 boards. There is one false positive. I leave it to the statisticians to determine the likelihood of this being random.
Copyright © October, 2015 Hammond Software.