Observation of Mr. Balicki/Mr. Zmudzinski Leads from EBTC 2014
This is an observation of 24 boards from EBTC 2014 where Mr. Balicki is on lead and Mr. Balicki/Mr. Zmudzinski have not bid.
See here
for the list of boards where Mr. Zmudzinski is on lead.
The work is based on the original crowd sourced data of the EBTC videos, therefore the Poland-Netherlands match, which is incorrectly labeled
as "2014 ETBC Poland-Netherlands" on Youtube.com is not included.
The board was observed from the time that the screen was opened to the end of trick 1/before trick 2.
The following is noted:
-
After the screen is opened, there is a strong correlation with Mr. Balicki having a 4 or 5 card suit and making a 4 or 5 finger signal.
-
The correlation is highest on board 15 on this list where Mr. Balicki makes a five fingered gesture at least twice. Mr. Balicki has two 5 card suits.
This is the only board where multiple 5 fingered signals are noted.
-
There is one possible false positive - board 21.
-
Unlike when Mr. Zmudzinski is on lead, no obvious correlation can be drawn on the actual 4 or 5 card suit.
First the table, then the details, then the summary.
# |
LIN # |
Country |
Board # |
Contract |
Lead (HH:MM:SS) |
Seconds/fingers |
#fingers |
Hand |
Lead |
1 |
34174 |
Denmark |
24 |
3NT |
1:30:30 |
6, more? |
4 (5?), more? |
3:KQ43:9742:8642 |
D2 |
2 |
34185 |
Israel |
21 |
4S |
42:00 |
|
|
7:AJ92:J754:T654 |
D4 |
3 |
34185 |
Israel |
29 |
3NT |
1:59:02 |
|
|
872:Q76:65:JT987 |
CJ |
4 |
34209 |
Turkey |
18 |
1NT |
17:39 |
|
|
Q96:T6:74:AKQJT3 |
CT |
5 |
34209 |
Turkey |
24 |
7S |
57:16 |
|
|
9:T6542:K5:T8653 |
D5 |
6 |
34219 |
Romania |
21 |
6H |
36:26 |
55 |
4 |
642:J5:QT85:Q976 |
HJ |
7 |
34281 |
Latvia |
5 |
3C |
40:39 |
17 |
4 |
742:K52:Q974:QJ5 |
CQ |
8 |
34281 |
Latvia |
7 |
4S |
58:20 |
23 |
5 |
J4:KJT43:A765:Q4 |
DA |
9 |
34281 |
Latvia |
11 |
1NT |
85:51 |
|
|
T96:AJ86:KT6:KT3 |
S9 |
10 |
34300 |
Germany |
18 |
3NT |
33:08 |
|
|
K743:QJ86:A75:Q4 |
HQ |
11 |
34300 |
Germany |
19 |
1NT |
38:05 |
|
|
73:QT92:AJ7:K987 |
HT |
12 |
34300 |
Germany |
28 |
4S |
1:35:44 |
|
|
3:AK75:J9873:T52 |
HA |
13 |
34311 |
Norway |
17 |
1NT |
10:05 |
|
|
K72:JT7:AK83:932 |
DA |
14 |
34311 |
Norway |
21 |
1NT |
42:04 |
|
|
A952:Q872:98:976 |
H2 |
15 |
34316 |
Russia |
8 |
4H |
55:46 |
10,25 |
5,5 |
K6:4:QJ972:J9832 |
DQ |
16 |
34316 |
Russia |
9 |
2C |
1:00:45 |
|
|
J:Q852:KJT632:K6 |
H2 |
17 |
34316 |
Russia |
14 |
3NT |
1:36:26 |
|
|
J97642:93:852:95 |
S6 |
18 |
34316 |
Russia |
15 |
3NT |
1:42:01 |
24 |
4 (or 5?) |
QT:Q943:J92:7652 |
H3 |
19 |
34329 |
Monaco |
13 |
3NT |
1:34:00 |
|
|
52:AQ64:Q842:Q96 |
H4 |
20 |
34329 |
Monaco |
15 |
4S |
1:41:20 |
11 |
5 |
J2:AJ4:JT542:543 |
DJ |
21 |
34329 |
Monaco |
16 |
3NT |
1:44:40 |
27 |
5 (4?) |
JT2:QJ96:K643:K9 |
SJ |
22 |
34338 |
Estonia |
19 |
? |
23:51 |
|
|
872:T942:QJ5:JT7 |
|
23 |
34338 |
Estonia |
24 |
4S |
57:07 |
|
|
3:AJ643:962:QJ53 |
D6 |
24 |
34338 |
Estonia |
27 |
4S |
1:11:07 |
|
|
T95:KQ8642:A3:53 |
HK |
Board 1
6 seconds after the lead, Mr. Balicki makes a signal.
It is not clear from the camera angle if this is a 4 finger, or 5 finger signal.
Because of the angle of Mr. Balicki's hand it is noted as a 4 finger signal.
Mr. Balicki then leans down, scratches his chin, and appears to repeat the signal, but his
body is blocking the view from the camera.
Mr. Balicki's hand is
3:KQ43:9742:8642.
Board 2
No signal.
Board 3
No signal. The start of the first trick is interrupted with a director call.
Board 4
No signal.
Board 5
No signal.
Board 6
While declarer is thinking about trick 2, Mr. Balicki places 4 fingers of his right hand on his
left arm. This signal has been noticed elsewhere and typically corresponds to a 4 card suit.
Mr. Balicki's hand is
642:J5:QT85:Q976.
Board 7
17 seconds after the screen is up, Mr. Balicki makes a 4 finger signal.
This occurs just after Mr. Balicki scratches his right chest with his left hand.
Mr. Balicki's hand is
742:K52:Q974:QJ5.
Board 8
23 seconds after the screen is up, Mr. Balicki makes a 5 finger signal after putting his head in his left hand.
After he makes the signal, Mr. Balicki scratches a lot, then moves some cards in dummy, and potentially makes a 4 finger signal
when putting his hand over his led card. This latter is subject to discretion and is noted here but not in the table above.
Mr. Balicki's hand is
J4:KJT43:A765:Q4.
Board 9
No signal.
Board 10
No signal.
Board 11
No signal.
Board 12
No signal.
Board 13
No signal.
Board 14
No signal.
Board 15
10 seconds after the screen is up, Mr. Balicki makes a 5 finger signal.
Mr. Balicki then puts his head on his right hand, scratches his right ear, then makes
another 5 finger signal.
Mr. Balicki has two five card suits.
Mr. Balicki repeats the 5 finger signal while Mr. Zmudzinski is trying to decide
if he should win trick 1 or not (overtake the QD lead with his AKx).
Mr. Balicki's hand is
K6:4:QJ972:J9832.
First signal:
Second signal:
Board 16
No signal.
An unusual hand arrangement is noted about 27 seconds after the screen goes up (fists on table, outstretched thumbs touching).
Mr. Balicki's hand is
J:Q852:KJT632:K6.
Board 17
No signal.
Board 18
24 seconds after the screen is up, Mr. Balicki clearly makes a 4 or 5 finger signal.
It is not possible to see if the thumb is extended or not.
Based on other examples, it appears to be a 4 finger signal so is recorded as such.
Mr. Balicki's hand is
QT:Q943:J92:7652.
Board 19
No signal.
Board 20
11 seconds after the screen is up, Mr. Balicki makes a 5 finger signal.
Mr. Balicki's hand is
J2:AJ4:JT542:543.
Board 21
26 seconds after the screen is up, Mr. Balicki makes what appears a 5 finger signal.
It is clearly a signal, the position of the thumb is difficult to determine if this is a 4 finger or a 5 finger signal.
The other 5 finger signals have a more extended thumb, the other 4 fingers have the thumb closer to the palm of the hand.
This signal is somewhere in between. It is noted as a 5 card signal as this was the original observation (without looking at the hand).
It is possible because of the angle that Mr. Zmudzinski is viewing that this may be seen as a
4 finger signal as the thumb may be hidden.
If a 5 card signal, this would be a false positive.
Mr. Balicki's hand is
JT2:QJ96:K643:K9.
Board 22
No signal.
Board 23
No signal.
Board 24
No signal.
Updates
None.
Comments/Criticisms
None.
Summary
There are 24 boards.
The correlation with showing 4 or 5 fingers in the right hand and having a 4 or 5 card suit is very strong.
There are 8 boards with a 4/5 finger signal.
There is one possible false positive (board 21).
The one time where Mr. Balicki repeatedly makes a 5 finger signal during trick one is when he has two five card suits (board 15).
Copyright © October 31, 2015 Hammond Software.