Statistics on Opening Lead in Wroclaw Pairs Events

These statistics are from the Pairs events (open, women, mixed, senior) in Wroclaw 2016. They include the qualifying round and finals - the WBF web site does not have the semi-final data yet.

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Sources

Data is from the Pairs events in Wroclaw, 2016. WBF data is at http://www.worldbridge.org/repository/tourn/wroclaw.16/Microsite/Results.htm. Data used for this article is at http://www.bridgescoreplus.com/data/wroclaw_2016/index.html. The raw data is at http://www.bridgescoreplus.com/data/wroclaw_2016/all_results.csv.

Usual Disclaimers on Statistics Apply

Unverified statistics on the opening lead from Wroclaw Pairs events. Data from WBF may be wrong. 13% of all opening leads are wrong, but we use the data anyway. Use of a posteriori data to claim a priori information. Use of repeating data within the data to enforce conclusions. Well aware of the multitude of other reasons that this is not statistical valid material.

But this is all supposed to be Fun with Leads so ignore the statistical disclaimer!!

Frequency of Contracts

Suit # Times % Declarer MP score %
NT830128.18%53.81
S861929.26%50.07
H703723.89%50.34
D26298.93%43.82
C28689.74%45.60

Frequency of Lead Based on Suit

Suit # Times %
Spades757625.72%
Hearts759225.78%
Diamonds741425.17%
Clubs687223.33%

Frequency of Lead Based on Card

Card led. Click on the "# Times" column to sort by the number of times each card was led.

# Card # Times
1♣K1284
2A1272
3A1242
4♣A1100
5♠A886
6♠6795
7J792
8♠5781
9K761
10♠K733
112727
12♠2716
133716
14Q694
15K662
16♠3652
17♠Q645
185641
195629
20♣Q607
213603
222602
23♣2579
246574
25Q571
26♣5562
276543
28♣3536
29J517
30♠J504
31♠4488
324488
334439
34♠10418
35♣4401
367398
37♣J384
387371
39♣6365
40♠9356
4110340
42♠7338
439318
44♣10308
458301
4610298
47♠8264
488263
49♣7263
50♣8262
519244
52♣9221
Total29454

Average Number of DDA Tricks Given Up Based on Lead

Sorted by average number of tricks given up based on double dummy analysis (DDA). The average lead gives up 0.152 DDA tricks.

# Card # Times # DDA Tricks Average
19318-109-0.343
27371-29-0.078
3♣4401-30-0.075
4♣8262-5-0.019
5♣1030820.006
6♠K73360.008
7657470.012
8J792240.030
9♠Q645210.033
10♠8264120.045
11♣Q607340.056
12♣9221130.059
135629390.062
143603380.063
1510298200.067
16♣3536360.067
173716620.087
184488470.096
19K761750.099
20A12721270.100
21♠9356360.101
22♣6365460.126
23♣2579730.126
24K662930.140
25A12421790.144
265641960.150
279244380.156
2827271190.164
29♣J384640.167
30♠4488840.172
316543950.175
32Q6941220.176
3326021060.176
34♠7338650.192
35♠10418890.213
36♠36521400.215
37♠57811680.215
38♣K12842900.226
39♣A11002500.227
4044391010.230
41J5171210.234
428263640.243
43Q5711390.243
44♠J5041320.262
45♣7263730.278
46♠27162000.279
478301850.282
48♣55621710.304
4973981240.312
50♠67952740.345
51♠A8863170.358
52103401460.429
Total2945444900.152

Likelihood of Scoring More/Same/Less DDA Tricks Based on Lead

The table shows the percentage of contracts that make more than double dummy analysis (DDA), percentage that make DDA, percentage that make less than DDA. Default presentation is in suit order. Click on each column to show the different card.

# Card > DDA = DDA < DDA
1♠A34.31%57.11%8.58%
2♠K18.55%66.03%15.42%
3♠Q19.53%61.55%18.91%
4♠J28.97%58.93%12.10%
5♠1029.67%54.55%15.79%
6♠933.71%42.13%24.16%
7♠828.79%49.62%21.59%
8♠730.77%48.82%20.41%
9♠635.35%45.91%18.74%
10♠531.50%51.73%16.77%
11♠429.30%51.02%19.67%
12♠331.13%51.07%17.79%
13♠231.84%54.05%14.11%
14A26.33%58.21%15.46%
15K26.54%56.64%16.82%
16Q22.91%63.54%13.54%
17J27.02%51.14%21.84%
181046.47%40.88%12.65%
19927.46%54.92%17.62%
20834.55%48.84%16.61%
21724.26%47.44%28.30%
22626.66%47.56%25.78%
23527.03%50.24%22.73%
24436.22%44.87%18.91%
25324.05%56.38%19.57%
26230.23%51.66%18.11%
27A24.76%57.39%17.85%
28K24.47%64.20%11.33%
29Q32.05%54.47%13.49%
30J24.56%66.54%8.90%
311030.54%43.62%25.84%
32921.70%41.82%36.48%
33833.46%52.85%13.69%
34743.22%41.96%14.82%
35630.39%53.22%16.39%
36529.17%54.60%16.22%
37425.61%54.51%19.88%
38328.63%47.49%23.88%
39233.15%45.80%21.05%
40♣A28.18%62.27%9.55%
41♣K28.97%58.41%12.62%
42♣Q24.55%57.00%18.45%
43♣J30.99%53.39%15.63%
44♣1025.65%48.38%25.97%
45♣927.60%51.13%21.27%
46♣817.18%61.45%21.37%
47♣734.22%52.09%13.69%
48♣623.01%61.37%15.62%
49♣537.90%47.86%14.23%
50♣425.19%49.63%25.19%
51♣326.68%51.31%22.01%
52♣231.26%48.36%20.38%

Percentage Score Based on Lead

The table shows the percentage score based on the opening lead.

# Card % Score
1♣956.107
2♣1055.505
3♠954.659
4♣J53.610
5Q53.308
6A52.615
7♣352.539
81052.303
9A52.161
10♣651.693
11♠K51.599
12J51.497
13Q51.004
14♣450.879
15250.819
16750.714
17950.704
18♣Q50.650
19350.457
20350.369
21650.365
22♠850.273
23♠Q50.038
24♣K49.902
25549.881
26♠A49.763
27♠J49.744
28♠249.439
29649.132
30K49.101
31♣849.028
32♣248.642
33K48.626
34948.596
35♠748.546
361048.538
37548.479
38♠348.408
39448.406
40248.390
41448.344
42J48.333
43♠448.272
44748.266
45♣747.903
46♠647.791
47♣A46.943
48♣546.876
49♠1046.337
50♠546.014
51845.688
52842.702

All Data Based on Lead

The table shows all of the data based on the opening lead. Pos=Position compared to other cards.

# Card Total Total Pos DDA Tricks DDA Average DDA Pos DDA+ DDA= DDA- % Score % Score Pos
1♠A88653170.365134.31%57.11%8.58%49.76326
2♠K7331060.01618.55%66.03%15.42%51.59911
3♠Q64517210.03919.53%61.55%18.91%50.03823
4♠J504301320.264428.97%58.93%12.10%49.74427
5♠1041834890.213529.67%54.55%15.79%46.33749
6♠935640360.102133.71%42.13%24.16%54.6593
7♠826447120.051028.79%49.62%21.59%50.27322
8♠733842650.193430.77%48.82%20.41%48.54635
9♠679562740.345035.35%45.91%18.74%47.79146
10♠578181680.223731.50%51.73%16.77%46.01450
11♠448831840.173029.30%51.02%19.67%48.27243
12♠3652161400.213631.13%51.07%17.79%48.40838
13♠2716122000.284631.84%54.05%14.11%49.43928
14A124231790.142526.33%58.21%15.46%52.6156
15K7619750.101926.54%56.64%16.82%48.62633
16Q694141220.183222.91%63.54%13.54%51.00413
17J7927240.03827.02%51.14%21.84%51.49712
1810340411460.435246.47%40.88%12.65%48.53836
19924451380.162727.46%54.92%17.62%50.70417
20830145850.284734.55%48.84%16.61%45.68851
21737138-29-0.08224.26%47.44%28.30%50.71416
2265742470.01726.66%47.56%25.78%50.36521
23562919390.061327.03%50.24%22.73%48.47937
244439331010.234036.22%44.87%18.91%48.34441
25360321380.061424.05%56.38%19.57%50.45719
262602221060.183330.23%51.66%18.11%50.81915
27A127221270.102024.76%57.39%17.85%52.1619
28K66215930.142424.47%64.20%11.33%49.10130
29Q571251390.244332.05%54.47%13.49%53.3085
30J517291210.234124.56%66.54%8.90%48.33342
311029846200.071530.54%43.62%25.84%52.3038
32931843-109-0.34121.70%41.82%36.48%48.59634
33826348640.244233.46%52.85%13.69%42.70252
347398361240.314943.22%41.96%14.82%48.26644
35654327950.173130.39%53.22%16.39%49.13229
36564118960.152629.17%54.60%16.22%49.88125
37448832470.101825.61%54.51%19.88%48.40639
38371613620.091728.63%47.49%23.88%50.36920
392727111190.162833.15%45.80%21.05%48.39040
40♣A110042500.233928.18%62.27%9.55%46.94347
41♣K128412900.233828.97%58.41%12.62%49.90224
42♣Q60720340.061124.55%57.00%18.45%50.65018
43♣J38437640.172930.99%53.39%15.63%53.6104
44♣103084420.01525.65%48.38%25.97%55.5052
45♣922152130.061227.60%51.13%21.27%56.1071
46♣826250-5-0.02417.18%61.45%21.37%49.02831
47♣726349730.284534.22%52.09%13.69%47.90345
48♣636539460.132223.01%61.37%15.62%51.69310
49♣5562261710.304837.90%47.86%14.23%46.87648
50♣440135-30-0.07325.19%49.63%25.19%50.87914
51♣353628360.071626.68%51.31%22.01%52.5397
52♣257923730.132331.26%48.36%20.38%48.64232

Data Based on Trump Contracts

The table shows the data based on the suit of the opening lead for trump contracts.

TrumpleadNot trumpleadBoth
SumTotalAverageSumTotalAverageSumTotalAverage
S65332379.1749.585252684230218235.8851.592406624883250615.0551.3239914
H62330308.748.649598724811250864.352.1438994543428117351.74328303
D23912554.9852.531297075199264456.9550.866887865438277011.9350.94003862
C24713181.2553.36538462515126155150.776742385398274732.2550.89519266
All176288424.150.1839387119391995108.1351.31804084211531083532.2351.22357254

More Data Based on Trump Contracts

The table shows more of the data based on the opening lead.

TrumpleadNot trumpleadBoth
LevelSuitSumTotalAverageSumTotalAverageSumTotalAverage
1S10492.8249.28553656.866.49654149.6263.84
1H7420.4660.07714018.556.60784438.9656.91
1D6354.259.03613089.6950.65673443.8951.40
1C5241.8948.38772879.4837.40823121.3738.07
1All281509.3753.9126413644.4751.6829215153.8451.90
2S23511672.7349.6756027859.6249.7579539532.3549.73
2H1376219.8845.4082442346.1651.3996148566.0450.54
2D502622.0252.44110251108.5846.38115253730.646.64
2C502882.8257.6699649483.7849.68104652366.650.06
2All47223397.4549.573482170798.1449.053954194195.5949.11
3S974556.6546.98106157499.254.19115862055.8553.59
3H865112.6759.45121766746.8754.85130371859.5455.15
3D915118.2456.24102052559.6351.53111157677.8751.92
3C874854.3555.80106452322.0249.17115157176.3749.68
3All36119641.9154.414362229127.7252.534723248769.6352.67
4S25512781.4150.12133665320.9748.89159178102.3849.09
4H32914983.3645.54185890535.5948.732187105518.9548.25
4D211144.6854.512216114219.7351.542237115364.4151.57
4C261380.2453.092424123240.4850.842450124620.7250.87
4All63130289.6948.007834393316.7750.218465423606.4650.04
5S201171.9958.6079041852.7952.9881043024.7853.12
5H201272.9963.6552730788.8858.4254732061.8758.61
5D432402.7255.8834419653.2857.133872205656.99
5C451875.9741.6931519393.8261.5736021269.7959.08
5All1286723.6752.531976111688.7756.522104118412.4456.28
6S261187.0945.6640720364.1850.0343321551.2749.77
6H341895.8355.7628814529.4650.4532216425.2951.01
6D17835.5949.1542521842.9251.4044222678.5151.31
6C211278.4860.8826213437.9751.2928314716.4552.00
6All985196.9953.03138270174.5350.78148075371.5250.93
7S10516.4851.65211682.3280.11312198.870.93
7H10403.5140.35261898.8473.03362302.3563.95
7D1177.537.05311983.1263.97422060.6549.06
7C13667.551.3513793.4561.03261460.9556.19
7All441665.0237.84916357.7369.871358022.7559.43
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